US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s clerical regime is expected to remain in power, albeit weakened but more hardline, despite weeks of intensive US-Israeli airstrikes.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is reportedly consolidating its control over the country.
A report by the Washington Post said the strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s missile and naval capabilities, killed top military and intelligence officials, and even targeted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The campaign, however, has come at a high cost.
At least $12 billion has been spent, 13 US troops killed, and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil supplies.
Western officials see little immediate prospect for regime change or the emergence of a more democratic government, which is a key objective of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
US intelligence reportedly predicts that Iran may emerge stronger politically, having survived the assaults and demonstrated resilience, according to sources cited by the Washington Post.
A European official described a possible postwar scenario as a “rump IRGC regime” retaining some nuclear and missile capabilities and regional influence, though degraded compared to its prewar position.
Meanwhile, Gulf allies have expressed anger at the Trump administration, claiming they were left to face attacks after being assured the conflict would be short-lived.
Iran’s ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of the world’s oil, has further fueled tensions and economic fallout.
Officials said there are no visible cracks within Iran’s leadership, and a classified National Intelligence Council assessment suggests that even a large-scale US assault is unlikely to remove the military and clerical establishment.
Source: Western Post Nigeria
