The International Monetary Fund has revised down Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to 4.1 per cent, citing rising fuel and fertiliser costs as well as increased shipping expenses linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis.
The new forecast represents a 0.3 percentage point decline from the 4.4 per cent estimate earlier released in January.
The downgrade was disclosed in the April 2026 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, unveiled during the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth outlook is being pressured by global uncertainties and external shocks arising from the conflict, which have disrupted supply chains and driven up production costs.
Despite the downward revision, the Fund maintained that the Nigerian economy would still record moderate expansion, although rising costs of goods, transportation and imported inputs could weigh on output.
The IMF also adjusted its global growth outlook, projecting world output to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026, down from 3.4 per cent in 2025, as the crisis continues to affect economic activities across regions.
Speaking at the presentation of the report, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said growth projections across Sub-Saharan Africa had been revised downward amid rising inflation and reduced external support.
“In Sub-Saharan Africa, we are observing a general slowdown in growth alongside rising inflation in several countries. The situation is largely consistent with global trends, especially for energy-importing nations,” he said.
Also commenting, the IMF’s Division Chief in the Research Department, Deniz Igan, noted that Nigeria’s revised outlook reflects the impact of rising input costs on economic activities.
She explained that higher fuel and fertiliser prices, coupled with increased shipping costs, are expected to dampen growth in the non-oil sector.
