The opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election has suffered a major setback following the reported exit of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), sparking fresh debates over the chances of unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to reports, both politicians have now aligned with the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a move that has further fragmented the opposition coalition initially formed to challenge the ruling APC in the next general election.
Political analysts and stakeholders remain divided over whether an Obi-Kwankwaso alliance under the NDC can pose a serious threat to Tinubu’s re-election bid. While some believe the coalition breakup weakens the opposition’s chances, others argue that the new alignment could still reshape the political landscape ahead of 2027.
Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, described the duo’s exit from the ADC as disappointing, insisting that opposition leaders failed to make the sacrifices needed to build a united front against the ruling party.
Dalung argued that the ADC remains the strongest opposition platform despite the defections, claiming the party still enjoys support from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s political base as well as loyalists of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
According to him, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket under the NDC lacks the numbers required to defeat Tinubu in 2027, especially considering shifting political alliances and divisions within their traditional support bases.
However, Abuja-based political analyst Jide Ojo said the defections were strategic moves aimed at giving Obi and Kwankwaso a clearer path to contest for the presidency rather than remaining under Atiku’s shadow in the ADC.
Ojo noted that Obi’s camp was uncomfortable with suggestions that Atiku could emerge as the coalition’s presidential candidate with Obi serving again as running mate. He added that Obi’s decision was influenced by the belief that 2027 may represent his best opportunity to contest for the presidency before zoning politics shifts power back to the North in 2031.
Meanwhile, media personality and Atiku ally Dele Momodu accused the Tinubu administration of exploiting zoning debates to divide Nigerians along regional lines instead of focusing on pressing national issues such as insecurity and the economy.
On the other hand, APC chieftain Osita Okechukwu defended zoning, insisting it remains important for national unity, inclusion, and political balance.
With growing defections, shifting alliances, and disagreements over zoning and coalition leadership, Nigeria’s opposition movement now faces uncertainty over whether it can present a united and formidable challenge to Tinubu and the APC in the 2027 presidential election.
