The World Bank has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection downward to 4.1% for 2026, from its earlier estimate of 4.4%.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender also adjusted projections for subsequent years—forecasting 4.2% growth in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028.
The report attributes Nigeria’s growth outlook to relatively stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment. However, it notes that expansion will be largely driven by the services sector—particularly ICT, finance, and real estate—while agriculture and industry continue to face structural challenges.
Inflation is expected to decline significantly, dropping from 23% in 2025 to 14.9% in 2026, and further easing to 10.7% by 2028. This is linked to tighter monetary policies and improving supply conditions.
Despite these improvements, the bank warned that poverty levels remain high and may only decline slowly, especially due to rising fuel costs influenced by ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The report also highlighted risks to Nigeria’s economic outlook, including global financial uncertainty, commodity price volatility, security concerns, and policy uncertainties ahead of the 2027 elections.
Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook
Across sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is projected to remain at 4.1% in 2026, slightly lower than earlier forecasts. The World Bank noted that about 60% of countries in the region—including major economies like Nigeria—have seen downward revisions.
While improved inflation control, stronger currencies, and easing food and fuel prices have supported economic activity, rising global risks—particularly geopolitical tensions—could threaten these gains.
Overall, growth in 2026 is expected to be driven mainly by private consumption and investment, with the services sector contributing nearly half of total economic output across the region.
