Nigeria’s inflation rate has eased to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, marking a notable slowdown from October’s 16.05 per cent, as consumer price pressures moderated under a revamped statistical base year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Monday.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, published on the NBS website, paints a picture of relief after months of relentless price hikes, largely attributed to the agency’s shift to a 2024 base year from the outdated 2009 benchmark. This rebasing exercise has recalibrated inflation measurements, offering a more accurate reflection of current economic realities in Africa’s most populous nation.
“The Consumer Price Index rose to 130.5 in November 2025, reflecting a 1.6-point increase from the preceding month (128.9). In November 2025, the Headline inflation rate eased to 14.45 per cent relative to the October 2025 headline inflation rate of 16.05 per cent. Looking at the movement, the November 2025 inflation rate showed a decrease of 1.6 per cent compared to the October 2025 Headline inflation rate.”
On a year-on-year basis, this represents a dramatic plunge of 20.15 percentage points from November 2024’s 34.60 per cent, underscoring the rebasing’s impact. The average CPI for the 12 months ending November 2025 climbed 20.41 per cent, a sharp deceleration from 32.77 per cent the prior year.
However, month-on-month figures reveal persistent upward momentum, with headline inflation at 1.22 per cent in November—up from October’s 0.93 per cent—indicating prices are still accelerating within the month despite annual moderation. Food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to dominate as the biggest driver of headline inflation, contributing 5.78 percentage points year-on-year.
Restaurants and accommodation services followed at 1.87 points, transport at 1.54 points, housing/water/electricity/gas at 1.22 points, education at 0.90 points, and health at 0.88 points.Month-on-month, food items again topped the list at 0.49 percentage points, with restaurants/accommodation at 0.16 points and transport at 0.13 points. Food inflation specifically moderated to 11.08 per cent year-on-year from 39.93 per cent in November 2024—a 28.85-point drop—but month-on-month it surged to 1.13 per cent from October’s contraction of -0.37 per cent. Culprits included dried tomatoes, cassava tubers, shelled periwinkle, ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, egusi, oxtail, and fresh onions. The 12-month average food inflation eased to 19.68 per cent from 38.67 per cent.
Urban areas saw steeper relief, with year-on-year inflation at 13.61 per cent (down 23.49 points from 37.10 per cent), month-on-month at 0.95 per cent (from 1.14 per cent), and 12-month average at 20.80 per cent. Rural inflation, however, lagged at 15.15 per cent year-on-year (still 17.12 points lower than 2024’s 32.27 per cent), with a sharp month-on-month acceleration to 1.88 per cent from 0.45 per cent—highlighting divergent pressures in agrarian communities.
Core inflation, stripping out volatile food and energy, fell to 18.04 per cent year-on-year from 28.75 per cent, with month-on-month at 1.28 per cent (from 1.42 per cent) and 12-month average at 20.76 per cent. Other metrics showed farm produce inflation at 0.79 per cent (up from 0 per cent), energy at 1.08 per cent (from 0.50 per cent), services at 1.82 per cent (from 1.54 per cent), and goods at 0.79 per cent (from 0.63 per cent).
Inflation varied starkly across Nigeria’s 36 states. Year-on-year all-items leaders were Rivers (17.78 per cent), Ogun (17.65 per cent), and Ekiti (16.77 per cent), while laggards included Plateau (9.13 per cent), Kebbi (10.32 per cent), and Katsina (10.60 per cent).Month-on-month spikes hit Bayelsa (6.58 per cent), Gombe (5.11 per cent), and Edo (4.45 per cent), with declines in Plateau, Delta, and Kaduna.
Food inflation year-on-year peaked in Kogi (17.83 per cent), Ogun (16.52 per cent), and Rivers (16.11 per cent), slowest in Imo, Katsina, and Akwa Ibom. Month-on-month food surges were led by Yobe (9.52 per cent), Katsina (6.61 per cent), and Ondo (6.04 per cent), with drops in Imo, Nasarawa, and Enugu.
The NBS urged caution on interstate comparisons: “CPI weights vary across states based on consumption patterns, which can make direct comparisons of inflation baskets misleading.”
This moderation offers policymakers breathing room amid ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including naira floatation and subsidy removals that had fueled prior surges. Yet, rising month-on-month rural and food pressures—amid climate vulnerabilities and supply chain woes—signal risks for low-income households, potentially exacerbating poverty in a nation where over 40 per cent live below the line.
Economists note the rebasing provides a cleaner baseline but doesn’t erase underlying issues like forex scarcity and insecurity disrupting agriculture. As Nigeria navigates 2026 elections and global headwinds, sustained monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria will be key to anchoring these gains.
